Member usage prior to covid-19 closure is a powerful predictor of return – 52 per cent of members who work out at least 12 times a month said they were ‘very likely’ to return compared to 37 per cent who attended eight to 12 times a month and 22 per cent who visit one or fewer times a month.

Interestingly, the level of usage doesn’t seem to have a material impact on the decision not to return, but it does have an impact on the desire to return: we found that members who use their club or gym fewer than eight times a month are half as likely to express strong sentiments about returning.

Around 65 per cent of US members say they are very likely or fairly likely to return. We consider this a powerful testament to how challenging it will be for clubs and studios to see a return to 100 per cent of their pre-COVID membership numbers.

Following this, 19 per cent are undecided and 16 per cent say they’re unlikely or very unlikely to return.

So it’s reasonable to predict most operators can expect 65 per cent to 84 per cent of their members to return. A return to 100 per cent will likely require recruiting members away from other facilities, not an impossible task, since 21 per cent indicated they were fairly likely or very likely to switch allegiances to another facility when they reopen

The process of members returning will be a staged process. 34 per cent indicated they’d return in the first week, 34 per cent between one and four weeks and 25 per cent between one and three months. This means clubs and studios must expect a slow and steady climb.

Women are more hesitant than men, with fewer women indicating they’re very likely to return (33 per cent women vs 42 per cent men). More women indicate they’re unlikely to return or haven’t reached that decision yet (50 per cent vs 43 per cent) and when it comes to how quickly they’ll return, 39 per cent of men say the first week compared to 29 per cent of women. If you’re in the US and your business is geared toward women, expect it to be a longer and more challenging process to rebuild your membership base.

Baby Boomers are the generation most likely to return and return faster –74 per cent of Boomers and older say they’re very/fairly likely to return, compared to 59 per cent of Gen Z and 61 per cent of Millennials. While it’s encouraging that the older generations are enthusiastic about returning, these findings sounds an alarm bell when it comes to the hesitancy of Millennials and Gen Z, since they represent the largest generational segment of the industry.

The decision to return is dependent on a variety of factors operators can’t control. We looked at 19 influences with respect to member’s decision to return.

Two were related to whether local governments are able to provide consumers with evidence that sufficient tests COVID-19 tests are available and being able to show consumers that the number of reported cases has declined over the previous two weeks.

Other influencers members reported as being extremely important are:

• Management keeping members out of the club who show symptoms
• Disinfecting equipment after each use
• Having immediate access to hand sanitising stations
• Enforcing limits on facility and group exercise capacity

Reinvent: Think, plan and execute differently: this data points to a new era for the industry, characterised by lower membership numbers, progressive ramp-up periods, and more scrutinised business practices.
Factors such as age, gender and past behaviour are extremely important variables – if your business previously required 5k members to be profitable, can you reinvent your value proposition to be successful with only 4k To accomplish this, build a plan that allows you to be profitable under these new circumstances.

Dive into customer insight: Get to grips with your database to prevail and thrive. Understanding the past behaviour and experiences of members will improve your successful rate when it comes to getting them back. The research clearly shows that knowing usage levels, length of membership, gender and age is critical to understanding how your reopening strategies will be received.

Take a strong position: Authenticity and transparency are more important than ever – members are saying they want operators to tell them straight what’s happening with respect to the virus and their club and to hold staff and members accountable to reinforcing policies, even if it requires taking a stand. Members expect managers to stand strong behind their decisions, if they don’t, it will lessen their likelihood of returning, or of staying when they do return.

Get virtual: Operators seeking relevance to Gen Z, Millennials and women need to commit to providing virtual fitness content. This emerged as generally being critical during lockdown, but our study shows virtual was used primarily by Gen Z, Millennials, and women. These groups also rated the provision of virtual fitness content as an important influence on their decision to return. The data also shows that nearly as many members are ‘very likely’ to continue using virtual fitness content as those who are ‘very likely to return’ to their former club.