Swedish futurologist Magnus Lindkvist lit up the opening session of the Flame 2014 conference with an electrifying examination of what will shape the future.

During a 50-minute address, Lindkvist drew on an array of entertaining examples and obscure cultural references – ranging from Natalie Imbruglia to the history of Red Bull – to explain why it’s vital to deviate from the norm to bring about real progress.

Often referring back to the battle to turn the tide on inactivity, Lindkvist said people will either create something completely new (which he described as vertical change) or look to compete with rivals by taking an existing idea and aiming to spread it to a wider audience (horizontal change).

The Swede said that most people will embrace horizontal change, as it’s often easier, better received as it’s already familiar, and often profitable. However, the habit leads to a distinct lack of diversity and major breakthroughs – a point neatly illustrated by the convergence of technology companies towards virtually identical looking smartphones.

Vertical change, he said, is much harder to effect, as it requires a unique idea that transforms something once thought of as magic, into an everyday occurrence accessible to all. “We once thought that telepathy – the ability to read people’s thoughts - was magic. Today we call it Twitter,” he quipped. “The point is that most good ideas don’t sound good and aren’t a good story, as they’re completely foreign to people. These are the ideas worth pursuing, but they will take time,” he added, citing the example of the 20-year battle it took to persuade doctors to wash their hands in hospitals. “The best ideas will be fiercely opposed – as was the case with the doctors - and you have to be prepared to make enemies to realise them. Eventually the crowd will follow.”

Lindkvist summarised that often big breakthroughs come about by mistakes – citing penicillin and Viagra as just two examples – and that as humans, we should embrace our mistakes so that we may eventually happen upon a unique solution. Shaping the future, he said, requires stepping into the unknown and doing something that is scary and foreign to the status quo.

Lindkvist’s four tips for vertical change:

- Look for secrets – Things that are commonly disparaged. “The only sign of something new is if people don’t like it,” he said.
- Embrace failure – Experimenting is key and mistakes put us on the path to other successes, he said.
- Recycle failures – “Some things take times and tweaking them could proved the difference,” he said.
- Be patient and persistent – “Everything looks like a failure in the middle of the project,” he said. “If you want to change something, do it slowly and no one will notice.”